The crude oil insight blog, breaks into the first technorati top 100 lists with an authority rating of 550. I have no idea how the hell did that happens (I have a few sneaking suspicions). For a blog that started off in February and is still ranked with a page rank of only 2.0, the…Read more
Uncategorized
Crude Oil Trading – Trading USO
Finally got cornered into buying out of money calls on USO; now in the market for buying out of money puts. How did the cornering happen; I was caught asleep on my laptop and rather than leaving a Good for Today order, left a Good Till Cancelled order that got filled the minute the market…Read more
Crude Oil price outlook – Is oil fairly priced now or still expensive. Or what can a barrel of oil buy – part ii
A few posts ago we ran a simple basic analysis looking at the relative value of oil with respect to a number of other core commodities. We revisit that post again with more recent and updated data as well as add a table that allows for a quick relative comparison of commodity prices against crude…Read more
Crude Oil and Euro price outlook: Putting Euro-Oil correlation to work – detecting mispricing in the market
All this correlation data and charts of trailing correlation between crude oil and Euro-USD exchange rates raised some very interesting questions. Take a look at another graph that we ran this afternoon, after seeing the numbers from the previous two posts If you assumed that correlation between Oil and Euro will ultimately bounce back at…Read more
Euro and Oil outlook – Trailing correlation between crude oil prices and Euro-USD exchange rates
And here they are. The two graphs that I had promised in my earlier post on trailing correlations on the Euro-USD exchange rate and crude oil prices. The first with the Euro-USD exchange rate. The second with oil prices. While the first does not really suggest a relationship, the second raises an interesting point. This…Read more
Euro outlook: Trading plan for Friday and next week
Euro hit a 4 year low on Wednesday, bottoming at $1.22 and by early Friday morning in Europe was already stable at a one week high comfortable above the 1.25 to a dollar threshold. So what is in store for the euro in the upcoming days/months? The debt crisis in European Union is continuing to…Read more
Crude Oil price outlook – the change in trailing correlations – Crude Oil blends and Euro-USD exchange rate
I suspected that this was happening but didn’t want to pass judgment till I saw the data myself. I want you to see it yourself also. Here is 60 day trailing correlation between the various blends of crude oil and the Euro-USD exchange rate. Can you see the dive starting April 2010? The last time…Read more
The fall of Euro – The mystery behind ECB and Mr. Juncker’s cryptic comments
How bad is the fall of Euro. Does the Euro-zone crisis marks the beginning of the end for the European currency? Will Euro ever recover? Is it in Greece’s interest to default and leave the Euro-zone? How do we even begin to answer these questions? I have lived in a country that has faced a…Read more
Crude Oil Outlook – Blast from the Past – The InvestBank note on Crude Oil Outlook in 2010
Here is the note that I have referred to a number of times in the past on this site. Written by Nauman Khan at InvestBank in mid March and release for public consumption in early April, Nauman correctly pointed out that the fundamentals for Oil outlook were very weak. His basic thesis in the note…Read more
Peak oil debunked – revisited 10 years later
4 years after JD walked away from the Peak Oil Debunked blog, I discovered his post and his blog playing with wonder wheel on Google. And what a treasure trove of information I found. In a world of oil bulls it was really getting lonely as a bear and I finally found company, real data…Read more