Euro and Oil outlook – Trailing correlation between crude oil prices and Euro-USD exchange rates

And here they are. The two graphs that I had promised in my earlier post on trailing correlations on the Euro-USD exchange rate and crude oil prices. The first with the Euro-USD exchange rate. The second with oil prices. While the first does not really suggest a relationship, the second raises an interesting point. This…Read moreRead more

Euro outlook: Trading plan for Friday and next week

Euro hit a 4 year low on Wednesday, bottoming at $1.22 and by early Friday morning in Europe was already stable at a one week high comfortable above the 1.25 to a dollar threshold. So what is in store for the euro in the upcoming days/months? The debt crisis in European Union is continuing to…Read moreRead more

Crude Oil price outlook – the change in trailing correlations – Crude Oil blends and Euro-USD exchange rate

I suspected that this was happening but didn’t want to pass judgment till I saw the data myself. I want you to see it yourself also. Here is 60 day trailing correlation between the various blends of crude oil and the Euro-USD exchange rate. Can you see the dive starting April 2010? The last time…Read moreRead more

The fall of Euro – The mystery behind ECB and Mr. Juncker’s cryptic comments

How bad is the fall of Euro. Does the Euro-zone crisis marks the beginning of the end for the European currency? Will Euro ever recover? Is it in Greece’s interest to default and leave the Euro-zone? How do we even begin to answer these questions? I have lived in a country that has faced a…Read moreRead more

Crude Oil Outlook – Blast from the Past – The InvestBank note on Crude Oil Outlook in 2010

Here is the note that I have referred to a number of times in the past on this site. Written by Nauman Khan at InvestBank in mid March and release for public consumption in early April, Nauman correctly pointed out that the fundamentals for Oil outlook were very weak. His basic thesis in the note…Read moreRead more