Crude Oil Trading – Weekly oil price outlook

The key factors to consider right now are the liquidity and solvency concerns being raised due to the contagion effect of the European debt crisis. Both these concerns are being raised due to fear for lack of availability of credit to businesses and are reinforced by the jump in LIBOR rates. If these credit concerns…Read moreRead more

Trading crude oil – Rising volatility across oil, commodity groups and crops

Before we get into actual crude oil volatility figures, here is a quick ready reference that you can use to interpret the graphs and data series below. A 1% daily volatility number scales into a 15.5% annualized volatility estimate. A 3% daily volatility number scales to 46.5%. Here is the trailing volatility for crude oil…Read moreRead more

Oil price outlook – BAML revises crude oil outlook downwards

Bank of American Merrill Lynch (BAML) finally updated their 2010 second half crude oil numbers downwards to 78 from their earlier reiterated outlook of 92. BAML was one of the few oil bulls left standing when oil continued its march northwards of 85, side by side by Goldman Sachs (GS). While a lot of analysts…Read moreRead more

Oil price outlook – Oil breaks 68, Euro touches 1.22, inventories data out later today

NYMEX futures fell Tuesday to 67.75 a barrel after rising over the 70 dollar barrier on Monday. US crude oil inventories data is out later today and the price fall is in anticipation of another expected rise in inventories. A turn in the inventories number may very well take oil futures up again, if it…Read moreRead more

Technorati Top 100 – Crude Oil Insights

So before Technorati wakes up and tells me that it was all a cruel sad mistake and there is no way on this planet (or any other for that matter) that anyone sane is going to entrust me with a 550 rating, that too for a collection of really badly drawan excel graphs and equally…Read moreRead more

Crude Oil Price outlook – Detecting mispricing in precious metals and crude oil using trailing correlations

I asked Agnes, our resident actuarial genius to run some more numbers on the crude oil and commodities correlation series that we had been playing with. Here is what she turned in today before heading home. If you have just arrived, the concept is simple. In times of stress correlations break down. Sometime they return…Read moreRead more

And we are hot…Technorati top 100 here we are…

The crude oil insight blog, breaks into the first technorati top 100 lists with an authority rating of 550. I have no idea how the hell did that happens (I have a few sneaking suspicions). For a blog that started off in February and is still ranked with a page rank of only 2.0, the…Read moreRead more

Crude Oil Trading – Trading USO

Finally got cornered into buying out of money calls on USO; now in the market for buying out of money puts. How did the cornering happen; I was caught asleep on my laptop and rather than leaving a Good for Today order, left a Good Till Cancelled order that got filled the minute the market…Read moreRead more

Crude Oil price outlook – Is oil fairly priced now or still expensive. Or what can a barrel of oil buy – part ii

A few posts ago we ran a simple basic analysis looking at the relative value of oil with respect to a number of other core commodities. We revisit that post again with more recent and updated data as well as add a table that allows for a quick relative comparison of commodity prices against crude…Read moreRead more

Crude Oil and Euro price outlook: Putting Euro-Oil correlation to work – detecting mispricing in the market

All this correlation data and charts of trailing correlation between crude oil and Euro-USD exchange rates raised some very interesting questions. Take a look at another graph that we ran this afternoon, after seeing the numbers from the previous two posts If you assumed that correlation between Oil and Euro will ultimately bounce back at…Read moreRead more