I asked Agnes, our resident actuarial genius to run some more numbers on the crude oil and commodities correlation series that we had been playing with. Here is what she turned in today before heading home. If you have just arrived, the concept is simple. In times of stress correlations break down. Sometime they return…Read more
crude oil and commodities
Crude Oil price outlook – Is oil fairly priced now or still expensive. Or what can a barrel of oil buy – part ii
A few posts ago we ran a simple basic analysis looking at the relative value of oil with respect to a number of other core commodities. We revisit that post again with more recent and updated data as well as add a table that allows for a quick relative comparison of commodity prices against crude…Read more
Euro and Oil outlook – Trailing correlation between crude oil prices and Euro-USD exchange rates
And here they are. The two graphs that I had promised in my earlier post on trailing correlations on the Euro-USD exchange rate and crude oil prices. The first with the Euro-USD exchange rate. The second with oil prices. While the first does not really suggest a relationship, the second raises an interesting point. This…Read more
Crude Oil price outlook – the change in trailing correlations – Crude Oil blends and Euro-USD exchange rate
I suspected that this was happening but didn’t want to pass judgment till I saw the data myself. I want you to see it yourself also. Here is 60 day trailing correlation between the various blends of crude oil and the Euro-USD exchange rate. Can you see the dive starting April 2010? The last time…Read more