Earlier this week, I asked if the time was right for Crude Oil to break 74 dollars per barrel on NYMEX and by Friday it was apparent that the time had come to forecast a new low for crude oil prices for next week. Crude broke through 74 US dollars a barrel to trade at…Read more
Crude Oil Outlook: The case for higher US dollar, rising US asset prices, lower interest rates and China trade surplus
When Bruce Greenwald first explained the net importer of capital and net exporter of capital argument at the Columbia Business School class reunion and its implications on the US dollar, I didn’t get it at all. But Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets does a decent job of explaining why the Chinese will keep on…Read more
Crude Oil Insights: Actual spare crude oil capacity within OPEC members
Post Carbon Institute posts a fairly detailed analysis of the actual spare crude oil capacity within OPEC. Their number is a lot less than the 6 million barrels of crude oil per day that we have all been throwing around. But that is partly due to their definition of spare crude capacity. The other interesting…Read more
Crude Oil Outlook: USD-JPY, AUD-JPY and Crude oil correlation and volatility
Here is the data that I spoke about earlier for USD-JPY, AUD-JPY currency pair and crude oil volatility and correlations over the last six years. You can clearly see that oil and the JPY-AUD pair volatility spiked together in 2008, 2009 as well as in the last few months. Similarly training correlations has been switching…Read more
Crude Oil outlook: NYMEX crude Oil to break 74 today? The rise of Yen, the dollar slide and US data release on Tuesday
The rumors of Yen’s demise as a safe haven are greatly exaggerated. Events of the last four weeks have again confirmed Yen’s status as a safe haven in times of risk. What does that have to say about NYMEX crude oil futures. Yen’s trade surplus with other currencies frees Japan from the need of overseas…Read more
Crude Oil Outlook – Crude Oil price outlook increasingly bearish for second half 2010
This weekend ran into a bit of time and did a review of educated posts on the status of the US economy, China, Europe, crude oil production, foreign currencies and the combined impact of all of the above on crude oil price outlook in the next two quarters. Do you want a quick summary? One…Read more
Learning Corporate Finance – A new look for the top five courses
Online Finance courses – Top finance courses at the Finance e-education portal
Based on Google analytics tracking, here are the top courses on the Corporate Finance e-education portal this month. Structured Products: Basic Products, sample term sheet and pricing | Learning Corporate Finance – 171 Views Calculating Forward Prices, Forward Rates and Forward Rate Agreements (FRA) – Calculation reference | Learning Corporate Finance – 146 Views Asset Liability Management…Read more
Learning Corporate Finance – Now a Technorati Top 100 Finance blog
It took five months to break through the Technorati Rating system but earlier this month Learning Corporate Finance finally became a Technorati Top 100 Finance blog. Couldn’t have done this without our content team (Agnes, Nabil and Adnan) and our super editor (Uzma) or our designer (Nida Faizi) or without the marvelous technological platform of…Read more
Crude Oil Outlook – Trade ideas for crude oil
The trend for crude oil is now very clearly established. Sell the minute it crosses 80 barrels per dollar for crude and buy once it gets closer to 70 dollars per barrel. I think the trade is worth about 5 dollars each way if you get in at the right time. I won’t do options…Read more