Oil price outlook – Oil up again in early trading in Asia, Euro picks up slack

Oil touched 71.84, hovering near the 72 dollar level in early afternoon trading in Singapore after the dollar weakened against Euro and slid to 1.2279 from 1.2178 yesterday.

Euro outlook summary – China review, Euro at 1.2170 in Tokyo, next stop 1.18

Most analysts are now talking about 1.18 as the next new low for Euro. There were rumors of Chinese officials reviewing their Euro-zone debt holdings, more concerns about Spain and Italy and the extent, depth and length of a slowdown in Europe on account of austerity measures. The fall in Euro last night in New…Read moreRead more

Crude Oil price outlook – Crude oil crosses $71.45 at 2pm Eastern time, NYMEX higher by 3.9%

Interesting whiplash action today compared to yesterday as crude rises by almost 4% despite an EIA reported rise in crude inventories and a drop in gasoline stocks, an improvement in durable goods orders and the first decline in 10 weeks at the inventory number in Cushing, OK where deliveries for the WTI crude oil contract…Read moreRead more

Calculating Value at Risk – Caveats, qualifications, issues

Qualifications to using and Limitations of the Value at Risk (VaR) Metric VaR is dependent on historical data and therefore may never fully capture severe shocks that exceed recent or historical norms. Also if the time period used in the calculation is a relatively stable one then the computed VaR will tend to understate the…Read moreRead more

Crude Oil price outlook – Oil picks up 1.7 dollars, rises across Asia and Europe

I can finally breathe a sigh of relief as my out of money call options on oil (USO) start showing some sign of life as crude oil for July delivery picks up 1.7 dollars on rising equities, lower gasoline stocks and the expected EIA report later today. Oil rose across trading in Asia and Europe…Read moreRead more