This time it was the US data on Manufacturing that fell; and that too for the first time in about 3 years. Recently weak data has been appearing on the statistics bulletin for both Asia and Europe, suggesting that the EU debt crisis is causing global economy to slow down. This helped in raising the…Read more
Economic Outlook
EURO Currency in danger
Crude oil fell below $80 which is measurably low from earlier prices in March of $100 per barrel and above. George Soros, the billionaire influential Wall Street whiz cautioned to the EU leaders that failure to take emergency notice of the EU debt crisis might led to the falling apart of the EU currency which…Read more
SLIGHT REBOUND IN THE MARKET
Gold gained in price after expectations that Fed will do more to encourage growth, increasing demand for gold as inflation-hedge. Silver also rose due to the same reason. The euro to dollar is continuing its bearish trend due to the renewed possibility of Greece for asking for a third bailout. Cyprus is also expected to…Read more
PESSIMISM REIGNS OVER THE MARKET
Investors were expecting the Fed to announce a fresh quantitative easing especially after recent U.S employment data showed a fragile market. However Fed Chairman gave no such indication which led to pessimism in the market for Gold causing its price to decline. Silver on the other hand rose by 2.9%. The euro to dollar fell…Read more
Crude Oil Trading – Weekly oil price outlook
The key factors to consider right now are the liquidity and solvency concerns being raised due to the contagion effect of the European debt crisis. Both these concerns are being raised due to fear for lack of availability of credit to businesses and are reinforced by the jump in LIBOR rates. If these credit concerns…Read more
Crude Oil Price outlook – Detecting mispricing in precious metals and crude oil using trailing correlations
I asked Agnes, our resident actuarial genius to run some more numbers on the crude oil and commodities correlation series that we had been playing with. Here is what she turned in today before heading home. If you have just arrived, the concept is simple. In times of stress correlations break down. Sometime they return…Read more
Crude Oil Outlook – Blast from the Past – The InvestBank note on Crude Oil Outlook in 2010
Here is the note that I have referred to a number of times in the past on this site. Written by Nauman Khan at InvestBank in mid March and release for public consumption in early April, Nauman correctly pointed out that the fundamentals for Oil outlook were very weak. His basic thesis in the note…Read more
Crude Oil prices: The Euro crisis, its implication on interim oil prices, Euro-zone and PIGS growth forecasts
Crude oil prices in Europe are now more expensive in relative terms than crude prices in the US. Take a look at the two charts presented below