Crude Oil Outlook – Blast from the Past – The InvestBank note on Crude Oil Outlook in 2010

Here is the note that I have referred to a number of times in the past on this site. Written by Nauman Khan at InvestBank in mid March and release for public consumption in early April, Nauman correctly pointed out that the fundamentals for Oil outlook were very weak. His basic thesis in the note…Read moreRead more

Peak oil debunked – revisited 10 years later

4 years after JD walked away from the Peak Oil Debunked blog, I discovered his post and his blog playing with wonder wheel on Google. And what a treasure trove of information I found. In a world of oil bulls it was really getting lonely as a bear and I finally found company, real data…Read moreRead more

Trading Crude Oil – USO Options

So the consensus from the last three weeks of research is that if as retail investor you would like to take exposure to oil (going up or going down), the best bet is USO. An ETF that is relatively liquid compared to other ETFs and ETN’s. And as Seeking Alpha points out keep an eye…Read moreRead more

Trading crude oil futures on NYMEX – contract specifications

From the NYMEX website Light Sweet Crude (CL) Futures: 1,000 U.S. barrels (42,000 U.S. gallons) Options: One light, sweet crude oil futures contract. Trading Months Futures: 30 consecutive months commencing with the next calendar month plus long-dated contracts listed at 48, 60, 72, and 84 months prior to delivery. Options: 12 consecutive months plus 3…Read moreRead more

Crude Oil Insights – Hedging oil exposure, tests of hedge effectiveness and correlations of crude oil blends across time

Trailing correlation across crude oil blends from 1995 – 2010. Great data, lovely graphs but terrible news for hedge effectiveness test as per accounting standards.

Crude Oil Insights – Trading options on Oil – Strategy review

  Long Call A call option is suitable when your outlook for the market is bullish. Since you are purchasing the call option, you need to allow enough time to expiration for the stock to move and reduce the effect of time decay. The potential gain in this strategy is unlimited, whereas, the maximum loss…Read moreRead more

Crude Oil prices: The Euro crisis, its implication on interim oil prices, Euro-zone and PIGS growth forecasts

Crude oil prices in Europe are now more expensive in relative terms than crude prices in the US. Take a look at the two charts presented below

Crude oil prices: Heading up or down?

Are crude oil prices heading up or down – what do future spreads say

In the news today – Will offshore drilling in the US change wellhead prices as well as retail gasoline

No. The FAIR blog says it will take about a decade for even the trivial impact to flow through. Also see the slightly dated but still relevant Failing to do the Math on Oil entry at the same blog