August 2010

Wall Street Journal reports that the revised US GDP figure for second quarter came in a 1.6% compared to the original 2.4%. Given the recent downward trend in oil prices, the weekend and the upcoming crude oil ETF rollovers, oil should bring the 70 dollar per barrel barrier on NYMEX before the 7th of September….Read more

The release of existing home sales data put further pressure on oil prices on Tuesday as NYMEX touched 71.32 per barrel of crude oil on Tuesday evening. Prices bounced back to 71.5 in early morning trading in Sydney on Wednesday morning. As per the numbers crunched by Calculated Risk the existing home month of supply…Read more

The release of existing home sales data put further pressure on oil prices on Tuesday as NYMEX touched 71.32 per barrel of crude oil on Tuesday evening. Prices bounced back to 71.5 in early morning trading in Sydney on Wednesday morning. As per the numbers crunched by Calculated Risk the existing home month of supply…Read more

Earlier this week, I asked if the time was right for Crude Oil to break 74 dollars per barrel on NYMEX and by Friday it was apparent that the time had come to forecast a new low for crude oil prices for next week. Crude broke through 74 US dollars a barrel to trade at…Read more

When Bruce Greenwald first explained the net importer of capital and net exporter of capital argument at the Columbia Business School class reunion and its implications on the US dollar, I didn’t get it at all. But Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets does a decent job of explaining why the Chinese will keep on…Read more

Post Carbon Institute posts a fairly detailed analysis of the actual spare crude oil capacity within OPEC. Their number is a lot less than the 6 million barrels of crude oil per day that we have all been throwing around. But that is partly due to their definition of spare crude capacity. The other interesting…Read more

Here is the data that I spoke about earlier for USD-JPY, AUD-JPY currency pair and crude oil volatility and correlations over the last six years. You can clearly see that oil and the JPY-AUD pair volatility spiked together in 2008, 2009 as well as in the last few months. Similarly training correlations has been switching…Read more

The rumors of Yen’s demise as a safe haven are greatly exaggerated. Events of the last four weeks have again confirmed Yen’s status as a safe haven in times of risk. What does that have to say about NYMEX crude oil futures. Yen’s trade surplus with other currencies frees Japan from the need of overseas…Read more

This weekend ran into a bit of time and did a review of educated posts on the status of the US economy, China, Europe, crude oil production, foreign currencies and the combined impact of all of the above on crude oil price outlook in the next two quarters. Do you want a quick summary? One…Read more