Currencies and crude oil price outlook – End of quarter ending March 2010

After the action in Euro this week a number of outlook revisions for the European currency were released. The two most noteworthy were the Goldman and ANZ note on Euro and their end of year outlook. The common theme amongst both is the 1.30-1.35 level force and a hint of sub 1.30 level for Euro with respect to US dollar by the end of the year. To this mix add the anticipated policy rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the US and talk of an oil less recovery. Come March 2010, we will hopefully see reinforcement of growth numbers for the US economy, absence of any additional or significant demand for oil and rising temperatures – all factors that should push oil prices further south. The one unknown here is Iran sanctions and any subsequent resulting pressures in the Middle East. Barring that dollar should strengthen, oil and euro should both drop before 31st March 2010.