What really happened at Goldman – A guide for laymen

What really happened at Goldman? Step number one – successful hedge fund manager calls XX and tells them that he wants to short certain kind of mortgages because they will lose value – “I want to short this crap” Step number two – Goldman goes and finds the other side – “who wants to go…Read moreRead more

Oil price outlook: Goldman, Volcanic Ash, and oil prices

Asia takes oil to below 82 on Goldman and travel disruption in Europe on account of the volcanic ash cloud. Expect more pressure as New York opens Monday morning and the entire commodity group heads south. As I said earlier today while Goldman will most likely only suffer a few minor bruises, oil and commodity…Read moreRead more

The Goldman-Sachs-SEC suit fall out: Impact on crude oil and gold prices

Towards the end of last week a key event happened that will stall and possibly break the rally in oil and gold prices and dominate markets and news for the next month. It was the SEC lawsuit against Goldman for “in-appropriate” conduct related to misstatement of facts on a CDO (Collateralized Debt Obligation) transaction linked…Read moreRead more

Bank of England and European Central Bank Rate decision

Bank of England holds rates steady at 0.5%. European central bank holds rates steady at 1%.  

Euro breaks 1.33, Oil heads towards 85, what down for the weekend?

And we are off. Euro slips below on 1.33 and trades at 1.3282 a new two week low, primarily on Greece. The crude rally stalls and WTI heads toward 86.0 while Brent slips to mid 85. Given the upcoming weekend, we should see steady profit taking and an increasing pressure on crude oil prices as…Read moreRead more

Risk Applications and Frameworks: Dedication

Risk Applications and Framework went to print today. This is the third book we have sent to print this year. The first one (Reboot) took three years. Every new effort gets easier and easier. Full credit for this “Just Ship It” goes to Uzma Salahuddin and Agnes Paul on the content, editing and production side…Read moreRead more

Crude oil prices outlook: market liquidity and trading volumes

More from Nauman’s note at InvestBank The Crude oil market like any other financial market is also a function of available liquidity in the system. Considering trading volumes as a proxy to the market liquidity, there was a marked increase observed in oil trading volumes during the later part of 2006, leading to an increase…Read moreRead more

The central bank of oil

Great article in FT describing Saudi Arabia as the central bank of oil, targeting physical availability of crude oil versus price levels, the resulting central bankerisque inaction and its impact on future crude oil prices. I was wondering what would happen to this role when Iraq is done bringing its 12 million barrels of production…Read moreRead more

Crude Oil Price outlook: Euro breaches 1.34, oil to head lower?

Crude Oil broke through 86 yesterday. Today Euro broke through 1.34 against the USD and hit 1.3357 USD per unit, according to WSJ. Part of the slide was Europe opening up after the Easter break, but what does this mean for oil? At this rate the translation effect we all speak off (what does a…Read moreRead more

Regional crude oil prices move up – Murban and Zakum now pricier by 5%

ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) raised prices for its crude blends by about 5.5% for customers in the US and Asia, following the lead of Saudi ARAMCO. Crude oil sold by ADNOC is shipped and delivered first and the price is set at the end of the each month by ADNOC. This price change…Read moreRead more