No. The FAIR blog says it will take about a decade for even the trivial impact to flow through. Also see the slightly dated but still relevant Failing to do the Math on Oil entry at the same blog
I never thought that I would ever get round to writing a book; much less three in less than a twelve month period. Such is life. So after Reboot and after Understanding Commodity Risk, comes Risk: Applications and Frameworks. Just finishing the final draft before it goes for typesetting. Expected out in print in early…Read moreRead more
Euro gets to the 1.33 zone, oil heads towards sub 80 and Gold after breaching through 1100 will most likely test 1065 within this week. All thanks to Portugal, rising crude inventories and the Greek dash to IMF. It’s good to be back in the game.
This just in – The FOMC meeting keeps the Fed US Policy rate unchanged.
Two off the beaten track articles that are a must read for Crude Oil bears. The first focuses on production and shipments by OPEC members and the first prediction by a serious oil player that prices will crash below 60 US$ by the end of this year and perhaps even lower within the next 5…Read moreRead more
What a week it has been. Last night was the first night in 7 days that I slept for 7 hours. My average naptime for the week was an astonishing 4 hours, excluding the time I spent power napping waiting for the red traffic light to change to green, on hold waiting for customers to…Read moreRead more
So how cheap is oil in Euro and Yen terms when compared to US Dollar and the Sterling (GBP). The above graph (courtesy of Nauman Khan at InvestBank) shows the relative impact of the US dollar depreciation against the three major currencies across a 10 year period starting January 2000 and ending December 2009. At…Read moreRead more
Two items that need special mention today: There has been a fair bit of coverage on the oil less recovery in OECD, especially North America and Western Europe. That talk has been counterbalanced by the belief that the slack in demand in North America would be balanced by the growth in demand in APAC and…Read moreRead more
Nauman Khan at InvestBank wrote a note on the relative change in US crude oil inventory on a seasonally adjusted basis when I asked him if the increase in US stock pile was simply a run up to refineries gearing up for their summer production run. Here is what Nauman’s note says: …Read moreRead more
I am not into fancy arguments. I just need one graph and a handful of facts to make up my mind. Fact number one – The thick red line suggests that end of Q4 2009, the world excess production capacity stood between 5.5 – 6.0 million barrels of…Read moreRead more