Uncategorized

The Fed announces the much awaited and anticipated policy rate hike and the dollar jumps. This is the game changer we had all been waiting for. Given it is Friday, there is going to be a lot of action today in the market in Euro, Oil and Gold. Atleast two if not more of the…Read more

API numbers are in lower than expected, but the real news is not that crude inventories are down and refined stocks are higher by a less than expected amount. The real news is here: “Crude inventories in the world’s biggest oil consumer fell 63,000 barrels. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected them to rise by…Read more

Both API and EIA are scheduled to report petrochemical inventory levels today at 4:30 pm and tomorrow morning. A larger than expected rise is being talked about. With the rally in oil sputtering out this morning, a stronger dollar and the weekend approaching crude prices could just as easily head south. The other interesting read…Read more

Inspired by the work done by two Thai economists, we ran some numbers for crude oil price changes and inflation in Pakistan. Here are some initial results [ad#Grey back med rectangle] Crude Oil and WPI for Fuel, lighting and lubricants 19.29% share of WPI General Crude Oil and CPI for Transport & Communication 7.32% share…Read more

Inspired by the work done by two Thai economists, we ran some numbers for crude oil price changes and inflation in Pakistan. Here are some initial results Figure 1 – Crude Oil, WPI and CPI changes  

Here is a quick review of how correlations have behaved over the last 2 years across the many shades of oil. Key benchmark used was Brent and it correlations were tracked against WTI, Fuel Oil, Diesel Oil, Natural Gas, Corn Oil, Soybean Oil and Palm Oil. WTI, Fuel and Diesel were used to provide a…Read more

WTI and Brent Scatter plot – Brent and WTI Form: Linear Strength: Very clear fit of data to a non-horizontal straight line. High concentration of points around the line of best fit indicates strong relationship. Direction: Positive incline from left to right Outliers: No significant deviations. Brent and Fuel Oil Scatter plot – Brent and…Read more

Correlation describes the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two quantitative variables. In other words it is a measurement of the degree of association between two sets of numbers that describes how closely they track or are related to one another. Except for Crude Palm Oil the data used for commodities are cash…Read more

Quick update on pages. Four quick posts introducing some key terms that I am likely to use in my analysis. A reader requested that we shared the assumptions behind some of our oil and currence price volatility graphs. Also added a new glossary page in the header