Crude Price Outlook

Dollar spikes and commodities tumble as China raises interest rates China increased its interest rates for the first time since 2007, aimed at curbing the rising inflation rate. The effect of this has been a sudden change in the market. The move helped in supporting the weak USD. At 0402 GMT, USD was trading at…Read more

The Chinese central bank (PBOC) raised interest rates for the first time in three years in a surprise moved that rocked commodity and currency markets. The US dollar retained its status as a safe haven currency as traders unwound trades and headed for cash and treasury securities. Commodity prices fell across the board with Crude…Read more

Oil and Gold move up as USD weakens again Monday’s trading brought about some surprises. We had seen on Friday that the USD was showing signs of recovery and the crude oil and gold prices were going down. On Monday, WTI crude oil futures closed at $83.08/barrel which is an increase of $1.83 from its…Read more

This course focuses on an alternative method of implementing a two-dimensional binomial tree compared to the traditional method of building a binomial tree in excel presented in most option pricing text books. The alternate approach is based on the techniques documented by Professor Mark Broadie at Columbia Business School as part of his coursework in…Read more

Wall Street Journal reports that the revised US GDP figure for second quarter came in a 1.6% compared to the original 2.4%. Given the recent downward trend in oil prices, the weekend and the upcoming crude oil ETF rollovers, oil should bring the 70 dollar per barrel barrier on NYMEX before the 7th of September….Read more

The release of existing home sales data put further pressure on oil prices on Tuesday as NYMEX touched 71.32 per barrel of crude oil on Tuesday evening. Prices bounced back to 71.5 in early morning trading in Sydney on Wednesday morning. As per the numbers crunched by Calculated Risk the existing home month of supply…Read more

The release of existing home sales data put further pressure on oil prices on Tuesday as NYMEX touched 71.32 per barrel of crude oil on Tuesday evening. Prices bounced back to 71.5 in early morning trading in Sydney on Wednesday morning. As per the numbers crunched by Calculated Risk the existing home month of supply…Read more

Earlier this week, I asked if the time was right for Crude Oil to break 74 dollars per barrel on NYMEX and by Friday it was apparent that the time had come to forecast a new low for crude oil prices for next week. Crude broke through 74 US dollars a barrel to trade at…Read more

When Bruce Greenwald first explained the net importer of capital and net exporter of capital argument at the Columbia Business School class reunion and its implications on the US dollar, I didn’t get it at all. But Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets does a decent job of explaining why the Chinese will keep on…Read more

Post Carbon Institute posts a fairly detailed analysis of the actual spare crude oil capacity within OPEC. Their number is a lot less than the 6 million barrels of crude oil per day that we have all been throwing around. But that is partly due to their definition of spare crude capacity. The other interesting…Read more