Crude Oil Insights

Just another crude oil bear, in the midst of all these oil bulls

Euro

Oil price outlook – Oil up again in early trading in Asia, Euro picks up slack

Oil touched 71.84, hovering near the 72 dollar level in early afternoon trading in Singapore after the dollar weakened against Euro and slid to 1.2279 from 1.2178 yesterday.

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Euro outlook summary – China review, Euro at 1.2170 in Tokyo, next stop 1.18

Most analysts are now talking about 1.18 as the next new low for Euro. There were rumors of Chinese officials reviewing their Euro-zone debt holdings, more concerns about Spain and Italy and the extent, depth and length of a slowdown in Europe on account of austerity measures. The fall in Euro last night in New [...]

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Crude Oil price outlook – Crude oil crosses $71.45 at 2pm Eastern time, NYMEX higher by 3.9%

Interesting whiplash action today compared to yesterday as crude rises by almost 4% despite an EIA reported rise in crude inventories and a drop in gasoline stocks, an improvement in durable goods orders and the first decline in 10 weeks at the inventory number in Cushing, OK where deliveries for the WTI crude oil contract [...]

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Calculating Value at Risk – Caveats, qualifications, issues

Qualifications to using and Limitations of the Value at Risk (VaR) Metric VaR is dependent on historical data and therefore may never fully capture severe shocks that exceed recent or historical norms. Also if the time period used in the calculation is a relatively stable one then the computed VaR will tend to understate the [...]

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Crude Oil price outlook – Oil picks up 1.7 dollars, rises across Asia and Europe

I can finally breathe a sigh of relief as my out of money call options on oil (USO) start showing some sign of life as crude oil for July delivery picks up 1.7 dollars on rising equities, lower gasoline stocks and the expected EIA report later today. Oil rose across trading in Asia and Europe [...]

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Crude Oil Trading – Weekly oil price outlook

The key factors to consider right now are the liquidity and solvency concerns being raised due to the contagion effect of the European debt crisis. Both these concerns are being raised due to fear for lack of availability of credit to businesses and are reinforced by the jump in LIBOR rates. If these credit concerns [...]

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Euro and Oil outlook – Trailing correlation between crude oil prices and Euro-USD exchange rates

And here they are. The two graphs that I had promised in my earlier post on trailing correlations on the Euro-USD exchange rate and crude oil prices. The first with the Euro-USD exchange rate. The second with oil prices. While the first does not really suggest a relationship, the second raises an interesting point. This [...]

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The fall of Euro – The mystery behind ECB and Mr. Juncker’s cryptic comments

How bad is the fall of Euro. Does the Euro-zone crisis marks the beginning of the end for the European currency? Will Euro ever recover? Is it in Greece’s interest to default and leave the Euro-zone? How do we even begin to answer these questions? I have lived in a country that has faced a [...]

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