Commodity price outlook – Gold heading towards breaking 1100, Euro beyond 1.30

With the Euro nicely recovering from its low of 1.18, the momentum that pushed gold beyond 1,256 dollars an ounce is now gone. Combine this with deflationary pressures in the US and the upcoming elections in November and we should see weakening in Gold from its current level to its pre-Euro zone crisis level of…Read moreRead more

Crude Oil Outlook – Crude Oil ready to head lower

It looks as if crude oil prices are ready to head lower, this time all the way down past 65 dollars per barrel of crude oil. From a momentum point of view the recent rally in oil has not been able to break past 80 and the rash of bad news about the US economy…Read moreRead more

Crude Oil Insights – Adventures with a Montecarlo simulator – The interest rate cut model

Crude Oil Macroeconomic forecast model Given the nature of our economy, one key factors effecting the economic outlook of Pakistan is the country’s balance of payments in particular the balance on its current account. In turn the major factor impacting the surplus/ deficit of the current account has been its sensitivity to oil price changes…Read moreRead more