Florence Tan reports from Reuters that oil is headed for a fall for a straight drop continuously in three weeks. This is attributed to the worsening EU crisis in managing the sovereign debt and a slowdown depicted in US economic data.  First there is the political chaos following the elections in Greece and secondly, Spain tripped into a recession. The continuous gain in US crude oil inventories also have a role to play in this fall. The most panic-causing element is the possibility of Greece from leaving EU as it does not have a government to implement the austerity measures.

Jeffrey Jones of Reuters brings out to our attention that the output from Canadian Oil sands are ahead of projections and will likely be an imperative source of this scarce resource in the future.

And the EU pot continues to boil originally appeared on Crude Oil Insights on May 18, 2012.

Oil is continuing its downward trend as more bearish news continues to surface. Today media pinpointed the following issues:

• Reuters reports that Brent crude slipped below $112 today as traders focused on the negatives. Greece talks to form a coalition failed which is causing political indecisiveness across the region. Germany, the largest economy in EU is expected to release its flash Gross Domestic Product tomorrow. The effects of worsening demand of China are also weighing down on the market. Talks are expected with Iran over the coming weeks and their results will determine the flow of the future oil price.
• Forexpors.com highlights that JP Morgan Chase revealed a 2 billion dollars loss late Thursday due to a rogue trader’s risky trading. This has led investors to shun riskier assets for the safety of the US dollar which has lead to appreciation of this currency. This makes oil more expensive so demand has fallen further. In the week ahead the talks between France and Germany are closely anticipated by investors.

CRUDE OIL PRICE OUTLOOK- Bearish Trend and Rogue Trading originally appeared on Crude Oil Insights on May 14, 2012.

The much anticipated data on Chinese demand went out on Thursday and now markets are reacting to it. US crude oil supplies are also reaching ever-higher levels and the outcome from the elections in France and Greece to the sovereign debt crisis is highlighted in the following media updates today:

• Mark Shenk of Bloomberg reports oil dropping in price on sixth consecutive day, which is the longest downtrend since almost two years. US stockpiles increased to 3.65 million barrels to the expected 2 million barrels. Greece is also struggling to form a government and has heavy scheduled debt repayments in the nearby future. This weakened the euro against the dollar; a strengthened dollar weakens demand for oil. There is also growing concern as Spanish bond returns increased above 6% and it is speculated that Spain will become the fourth country to seek bailout from the EU.

• Outlook.india.com reports from PTI that oil prices fell due to disappointing data on Chinese demand and an increase in crude oil production by OPEC.  Markets are also concerned about the French and Greek elections both in which the public rejected the EU austerity measures required to solve the sovereign debt crisis.

CRUDE OIL PRICE OUTLOOK- Disappointing Chinese Demand originally appeared on Crude Oil Insights on May 14, 2012.

The crucial elections in France and Greece finally took place and the markets’ reaction is seen as bearish. Whether this trend will continue or not depends on perhaps the sole bullish feature; whether EU will implement the ban on Iranian oil or not. Investors are waiting this week for China to generate data on its economy so that they can see the latest economic conditions clearly. On Thursday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech is also anticipated.

Chikako Mogi of Reuters highlights that defeat of the ruling parties in France and Greece led to risk aversion in the market which caused the prices of oil to fall further. There is a growing concern that the consensus EU has over sovereign debt crisis is rapidly eroding due to outset of these governments and points doubt at the current austerity measures taken to handle it. Elections in Greece had a much more profound impact on the market than that of France which was relatively expected. The damaging effects of dropping US data still holds grip on the market.

CRUDE OIL PRICE OUTLOOK- Elections in Greece and France originally appeared on Crude Oil Insights on May 8, 2012.

Volatility has returned to the market. With the Iran situation tension slithering down the oil market has focused on the demand side and the health of the economies of US and European nations. This is precisely what caused such a dramatic drop in oil prices in just over a day or so. Comprehensive coverage by Bloomberg Mark Shenk highlights these points:

• This is the first time that WTI oil fell below $100 barrier since February. US employers inducted fewer labor than expected and combine this demand situation with the current highest level of inventories in twenty one years. 160,000 increases in payrolls were expected whereas only 115,000 were achieved.  Brent also fell due to dismal manufacturing output. Labor participation rates fell as well as purchasing managers’ figures in EU region. May 6 and the corresponding days are very crucial because of French and Greek elections as well as local elections in Italy and Germany. This would have a major impact on policy for the region from where 12% of total oil demand arises. The situation is volatile as WTI touched $106 on May 1 but just 4 days later fell to around $98.

CRUDE OIL PRICE OUTLOOK- Volatility Reigns Again originally appeared on Crude Oil Insights on May 7, 2012.

Swings are common in the oil market as today’s analysis shows. Summer season is almost at the footstep and preparations are underway. Is the oil price downward trend temporary and will be offset by the higher demand in the summer season? Media explores this point and a number of other relevant highlights in today’s print:

• Reuters reports that NYMEX held steady a day after a sharp increase due to higher manufacturing growth in US than expected. This data was anticipated a while ago and was predicted to lower the prices due to falling growth instead.  The key data HSBC final PMI reading for April for China is expected to be released soon and shed insights into the Chinese growth after it fell in March. Also crude oil stocks in US increased by lower than expected levels.

• However, as volatile as the market is, prices have started to decrease over pessimistic data from China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index. US crude oil stocks are also building and the anticipation is that stocks are being built up by countries in expectation of higher demand in the upcoming summer season. The price decline is temporary and the seasonal effect will soon overweigh it. This is reported by Lananh Nguyen and Ben Sharples of Bloomberg. Oil investors will wait the upcoming data set on inventory from the EIA due on Wednesday May 2^nd 2012. Spain has also formally entered into a recession, the second since 2009.

• Elliott Gue of forexpros.com predicts Brent’s price to be $110 in 2012 and WTI to be more than $100. His in-depth analysis includes a number of important points such as the observation that consumers in US are beginning to accept high prices this is why despite the high oil prices demand went up from the retail and manufacturing side, when compared to last month. Also highlighted are a number of supply disruptions like conflict between Sudan and South Sudan.

CRUDE OIL PRICE OUTLOOK- Preparations for the Summer originally appeared on Crude Oil Insights on May 3, 2012.

Today oil prices increased but the bearish features are still here to stay for a while at least. There have been few developments in media today with some of the major points highlighted in these prints:

• Oil prices increased due to higher consumer spending and signs of higher demand rising from Asia, Ben Sharples of Bloomberg reports.  Businesses are operating at high confidence levels in South Korea and New Zealand. Crude oil price has followed its trend closely in April than any other month in 17 years due to easing concern over supply disruption and relatively lower demand.
• Forexpros.com highlights the falling dollar index which might be one of the reasons for the increase in oil prices. In this week, data on US non-farm payroll is anticipated to shed light on the latest demand situation in the United States. The outcome of the meeting of European Central Bank’s policy meeting is also yet to be seen.

CRUDE OIL PRICE OUTLOOK- High business confidence in South Korea originally appeared on Crude Oil Insights on May 2, 2012.

A number of important developments have taken place regarding the EU crisis, the US economy and OPEC production levels. These are covered by the following media prints:

• Grant Smith of Bloomberg reports that oil prices fell on April 27^th 2012 due to the fact that Standard & Poor renewed the credit rating and lowered it for Spain which has swelled up concerns about EU faltering demand.  Aside from that US economy also grew less than forecasted and that it is struggling to address unemployment issues. In a Bloomberg Survey, most of the analysts are bearish on the future oil prices. Also Libya is all set to increase its production to record levels in the upcoming months.
• However just some a day later on April 28^th 2012, Mark Shenk of Bloomberg highlights that oil prices rose onto the highest level in three weeks due to market response of higher US consumer spending and better than expected earnings surpassed the lower than expected GDP forecast.  However whether this was just a market spur or not depends on the feature that mostly bearish elements are present in the market. These include the credit down rating of Spain as well as record level OPEC production.

CRUDE OIL PRICE OUTLOOK- RISE IN US CONSUMER SPENDING originally appeared on Crude Oil Insights on April 28, 2012.

CRUDE OIL PRICE OUTLOOK- OBAMA WARNS SPECTATORS originally appeared on Crude Oil Insights on April 27, 2012.

Today sees the impact of Iran signaling to the world that it is ready to halt its nuclear program. Cushing inventories are at all time high and the Fed has opened the door for further monetary easing. The points which gathered the media’s interests today are:

Ben Sharples of Bloomberg highlights the recent events of Iran’s dialogue with the Western powers. On Russian insistence, Iran is considering to halt its nuclear program. However the precise direction of this diplomacy will be seen when whether EU sanctions are implemented against Iran in July or not. There are also reports coming from experts that $100 a barrel is here to stay and while prices might soften up, they will not collapse.

Francis Kan of Reuters reports that Brent held steady with optimism about the US economy offsetting the high US Crude Oil supplies. U.S Federal Reserve said on Friday that it is willing to support the economy and this opens the option of another round of monetary easing. The spectators saw this as a possible indication of increase in future energy demand. In the week up to April 20, crude stocks rose to level of 4 million barrels while 2.7 million barrels were expected. The data on unemployment claims and house sales by US is eagerly anticipated. The euro debt crisis might see a new episode by the Dutch government collapsing over budget plans.

Chris Kahn of Bloomberg Business week explains that Federal U.S Reserve expects the US economy to grow between 2.4%-2.9% up from the January forecast of 2.2%-2.7%. Although the crude oil supplies in Cushing are at near record levels, this is expected to fall from May when the Seaway Pipeline begins to carry oil from Cushing to the Gulf Coast. This might eliminate the supply gut and even cause future oil prices to rise.

Crude Oil Price Outlook- Soaring Cushing Inventories originally appeared on Crude Oil Insights on April 26, 2012.