With the uncertainty around US economy, the 10% drop in sales and industrial production in Japan, the tightening in China, inflation in India and the Euro crisis in Western Europe, the only growth story in 2011 will be Germany. That does not justify the build up in demand gap we have all been talking about for the next 2 – 3 years. And while Japan may face a shortfall of 10MW the increased consumption in fuel oil required by Japan over the rebuilding phase is adequately covered by the excess production capacity within both OPEC and non-OPEC members.
Today’s breaking news about Osama bin Laden being killed in the Pakistani city of Abbottabad has taken the world by surprise. The leader and main face of al-Qaeda, bin Laden was instrumental in the spread of Jihadi outfits throughout the world. His death might be nothing more than a symbolic victory in the short-run, considering…Read moreRead more
The key factors to consider right now are the liquidity and solvency concerns being raised due to the contagion effect of the European debt crisis. Both these concerns are being raised due to fear for lack of availability of credit to businesses and are reinforced by the jump in LIBOR rates. If these credit concerns…Read moreRead more
Bank of American Merrill Lynch (BAML) finally updated their 2010 second half crude oil numbers downwards to 78 from their earlier reiterated outlook of 92. BAML was one of the few oil bulls left standing when oil continued its march northwards of 85, side by side by Goldman Sachs (GS). While a lot of analysts…Read moreRead more
Here is the note that I have referred to a number of times in the past on this site. Written by Nauman Khan at InvestBank in mid March and release for public consumption in early April, Nauman correctly pointed out that the fundamentals for Oil outlook were very weak. His basic thesis in the note…Read moreRead more
4 years after JD walked away from the Peak Oil Debunked blog, I discovered his post and his blog playing with wonder wheel on Google. And what a treasure trove of information I found. In a world of oil bulls it was really getting lonely as a bear and I finally found company, real data…Read moreRead more
Trailing correlation across crude oil blends from 1995 – 2010. Great data, lovely graphs but terrible news for hedge effectiveness test as per accounting standards.
Are crude oil prices heading up or down – what do future spreads say