Crude oil price outlook – US Jobs reports – non-farm payroll expectations
The US unemployment rate is expected to fall to 9.8% in May from 9.9% in April. Estimates range from 9.7% to 9.8.% and analysts are forecasting a rise in non-farm payroll by 615,000. In case of any disappointments in the US jobs report, US treasury prices and US dollar would both trade higher on account of risk aversion and push commodities and other currencies lower. If expectations are met or exceeded trades may go either way. If the tone is global recovery the dollar may go up or down depending on investor outlook and risk appetite.
The euro has held above $1.2000 support level, and has so far traded within the $1.2150 to $1.2450 range. Given the weekend and the focus on US Jobs report, if it has to break 1.20, all it needs is the right US jobs report and one more breaking news on Europe before market open in New York.